Ethereum entered the week on the defensive as persistent outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs dampened sentiment across the market. According to SoSoValue, Grayscale’s ETHE has now recorded a staggering –$4.93 billion in cumulative net redemptions, the largest outflow among all Ethereum-listed ETFs.

While the broader ETH ETF market saw $76.5 million in daily net inflows, these gains were overshadowed by Grayscale’s selling pressure.

ETHE’s 2.5% fee, far higher than competitors like BlackRock’s ETHA at 0.25%, continues to push legacy holders to exit positions. That process mirrors the heavy GBTC unwind that weighed on Bitcoin earlier this year.

While BlackRock’s ETHA posted $68.27 million in daily inflows, the tug-of-war between ETHE’s redemptions and inflows elsewhere has left overall confidence fragile.

Combined net ETF assets now stand near $19.15 billion, representing roughly 5.2% of Ethereum’s market capitalization. For traders, the message is clear: the structural demand is improving, but ETHE’s outflows remain the dominant headwind in the near term.

Macro Sentiment Adds to Volatility

Uncertainty across broader risk markets compounds the pressure. A cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, slowing liquidity conditions, and ongoing liquidation in leveraged crypto positions have encouraged investors to tread carefully.

While institutional appetite for ETH exposure remains intact, particularly through BlackRock, Fidelity, and Bitwise, the rotation away from ETHE has created an uneven demand profile that ETH must work through before a sustained rally can emerge.

In short, the ETF landscape is improving, but the recovery is uneven, and it shows on the charts.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Technical Outlook: Downtrend Still Dominant

Ethereum price prediction is attempting to stabilize after a steep November decline, but its daily structure still leans bearish within a well-defined descending channel stretching from the $3,666 breakdown. ETH trades near $3,002, sitting just under the 20-day EMA at $3,087, which has capped every rebound for nearly a month. A daily close above this level would mark the first meaningful shift in momentum.

The rebound from $2,632 is encouraging but not yet a trend reversal. Candles show hesitation, small bodies, mild upper wicks, and no strong engulfing signals. Meanwhile, the RSI has lifted from oversold 30 to around 40, showing easing bearish pressure but offering no bullish divergence yet.

TradingView’s projected path points toward a retest of $3,080–$3,120, followed by a potential rejection that could pull ETH back toward $2,632. A deeper decline exposes $2,192, the lower boundary of the channel, and a key historical demand area.

To flip bullish, ETH must break above the 20-EMA and then the channel ceiling near $3,300. A breakout there unlocks a move toward $3,666 and potentially $4,242.

Outlook: A Breakout Could Trigger New Opportunities

For now, patience is key. Traders will look for a higher low around $2,700 or a confirmed daily close above $3,120 to validate a recovery. If momentum flips decisively, Ethereum could be among the first majors to ignite a broader market rebound, a shift that historically channels fresh capital toward early-stage presale projects ready to benefit from the next expansion cycle.

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